Welcome to our special Autumnal equinox edition of morning reads:
• Predicting the Next Recession: The Fed cannot ease pandemic related supply constraints (except by curbing demand), and the Fed cannot stop the war. So, there is a possibility that the Fed will tighten too much and that will lead to a “hard landing” (aka recession). (Calculated Risk)
• Why Trump’s Alleged Real-Estate Shenanigans Went Too Far: You can get away with a lot when appraising property, but not this much. (Slate) see also How bad is the New York AG lawsuit for the former president? The move identifies crimes and it creates institutional and political pressure on the Southern District of New York and the IRS to take further action. It legitimates that further action. (Grid)
• The Trade Mess Is Improved, But Don’t Get Too Comfortable: While the armadas of container ships waiting for berths have shrunk, other problems lurk for cargo transport. (Chief Investment Officer)
• This Should Have Been a Great Year for Gold. Here’s Why It Isn’t. The yellow metal is supposed to be a haven when stocks are a mess, but it is down about 8% this year. (Wall Street Journal)
• The family that built a ballpark nachos monopoly: Anytime you order nachos at a sporting event, there’s a good chance they came from a molten-cheese empire in San Antonio, Texas. (The Hustle)
• Does Money Make You Happy? The Latest Research Might Surprise You Evidence that money does, in fact, buy happiness continues to surface. (US News)
• The iPhones 14 Pro (and iPhones 14) There are two super interesting innovations with the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max. There aren’t any interesting innovations with the iPhone 14 or 14 Plus — which fact itself is actually pretty interesting, strategically. (Daring Fireball)
• The Ragtag Army That Won the Battle of Kyiv and Saved Ukraine: Citizen volunteers teamed up with soldiers to turn the tide in the most consequential European battle since World War II. (Wall Street Journal)
• A Gnarly New Theory About Saturn’s Rings: The story of a long-lost moon. (The Atlantic)
• Alan Alda on ‘M*A*S*H’: ‘Everybody Had Something Taken From Them’ As the acclaimed “situation tragedy” turns 50, the star reflects on its innovations: “The crazy behavior wasn’t just to be funny. It was a way of separating yourself for a moment from the nastiness.” (New York Times)
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Steve Case, co-founder of America On-Line (AOL), founder of investment firm Revolution, Char of the Smithsonian, and author of The Rise of the Rest: How Entrepreneurs in Surprising Places are Building the New American Dream.
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